Peace and War

Monday, June 11, 2007

No change of policy over troop withdrawal, Brown tells Iraqis

Iraq believes that Gordon Brown will follow Tony Blair’s policies and refuse to sanction a swift pullout of troops when he becomes Prime Minister.

Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, speaking after meeting Mr Brown in Baghdad during a surprise one-day visit, said he felt that the Chancellor had made the trip “to ensure a positive British commitment to Iraq”.

Speaking to The Times, Mr al-Maliki dampened the hopes of politicians who believe that Mr Brown’s arrival at No 10 will prompt a speedy withdrawal.

He said: “I feel he will follow the policy of Tony Blair in his decisions towards Iraq and we agreed to make contact on all the important issues we discussed. We wanted to know what the new Prime Minister was thinking about on the Iraq issue and his present policy on Iraq,” he said.

Asked whether he was worried about the prospect of Britain withdrawing its troops from the country, the Iraqi leader replied: “It was one of the issues we discussed and we wanted to be clear on everything concerning whether Britain wants to pull out and when, just to make sure we are able to put our own measures in place. They said they will not pull out before discussing it with us and we are all agreed on a replacement solution for the security process.”

Mr al-Maliki’s words were supported by sources close to the Chancellor, who also met British and American commanders in Baghdad. They said that the visit had confirmed Mr Brown’s view, based on military advice, that there could be no sudden change to the timetable for eventual British withdrawal.

Under present plans British forces are due to hand over control to Iraqi forces by the end of the year, when the British presence will be reduced by several thousand troops.

Mr Brown’s visit came as the Commons debated, and rejected, a Conservative call for an inquiry into the Iraq war. The voting was 288 to 253, cutting the Government’s majority to 35. The Chancellor said that there were lessons to be learnt from past mistakes but it was not the time for an inquiry while British troops were still in Iraq.

While again backing the decision to go to war, he distanced himself from the handling of the intelligence. It was the first time that Mr Brown had hinted that he was unhappy with the Downing Street dossier, which had suggested that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction that could be deployed in 45 minutes.

Mr Brown revealed that he has asked Sir Gus O’Donnell, the Cabinet Secretary, to begin a process to ensure that security and intelligence analysis is kept “independent of the political process” and that any information put into the public domain had been properly verified and validated. Asked whether he regretted the decision to go to war, he replied: “We made the decision. I take responsibility for that decision.”

Mr Brown is also drawing up proposals to make the powerful Intelligence and Security Committee more independent of Downing Street. He wants its members to be appointed by Parliament rather than No 10, and more of its evidence and reports to be made public.

Speaking to reporters travelling with him, Mr Brown, who was accompanied by Des Browne, the Defence Secretary, said: “I’m here to listen, to learn, to assess what’s happening – to see what’s happening with al-Qaeda, to see what’s happening in relation to Iran, to see what’s happening to the sectarian conflicts, to see all the people on the ground and make an assessment of what’s happening.”

Rush-Hour Blast In Nairobi Kills 2, Wounds Dozens

NAIROBI, June 11 -- A bomb exploded at a downtown bus stop here early Monday morning, killing two people, injuring more than 35 and sending out a shock wave that hurled glass, shrapnel and bodies into the air, witnesses and officials said. There was no immediate assertion of responsibility.

Police Commissioner Mohamed Hussein Ali said the explosion apparently came from something someone was carrying. Several witnesses reported various versions of a similar story: that a bag a man was holding -- some said it was paper, others said it was a backpack -- exploded in front of a cafe where a city bus bound for the airport had stopped.

"It was a man trying to get on the bus holding a paper bag," said David Mwangi, 35, who was having his shoes shined when the explosion sent shards of glass into his face and hand. "He himself looked like he disintegrated. I don't know what made me look."

Mwangi said the man shining his shoes was hurled at least six feet into the air.

The blast occurred during the morning rush hour on a busy downtown block of restaurants and shops anchored by the Ambassadeur Hotel, which serves a mostly Kenyan clientele. The block is bordered by Moi Avenue, a staging area for the city's large green buses, which are usually crowded with people.

People ducked and ran or limped away as ambulances, anti-terrorism police and bomb-sniffing dogs descended on the area. Investigators closed off two blocks and sifted through the detritus with gloved hands.

"I do not want to speculate if it is or is not" a suicide attack, Ali told reporters at the scene.

By early Monday afternoon, hundreds of curious passersby were clustered around the shuttered City Gate cafe, whose green metal doors were still smeared with blood. Blood pooled on the sidewalk between the cafe and the bus stop, and bits of paper and glass were scattered in an arc stretching at least 20 feet.

At Nairobi's Kenyatta National Hospital, which received 37 people injured in the blast, dazed victims lay on gurneys with their arms or heads bandaged. Others sat on benches along corridors, including a man left temporarily deaf by the explosion and another, Cyrus Mwirigi, who had been knocked unconscious.

"I was at the staging area waiting to take the bus to work" at the airport, said Mwirigi, 25. "Then I can't remember what happened."

Though Kenya is a relatively peaceful country, terrorists linked to al-Qaeda detonated a massive truck bomb at the U.S. Embassy here in 1998, killing more than 250 people just a few blocks from the site of Monday's blast. Suicide bombers attacked a hotel in the Kenyan coastal resort town of Mombasa in 2002.

Kenya shares a long border with Somalia, one of the most unstable countries on the continent, and suspicion concerning Monday's attack quickly fell on insurgents there, who are using roadside bombs and suicide attacks against the Ethiopian-backed Somali government that ousted a popular Islamic movement late last year.

Because Kenya supported the Somali government, rounding up dozens of Islamic fighters attempting to cross the border and shipping them to secret Ethiopian prisons, officials consider Kenya vulnerable to a retaliatory attack.

Suspicions also turned inward. A cultlike extortionist gang called the Mungiki has been terrorizing Nairobi's sprawling slums and surrounding areas in recent months, with some of its victims found beheaded.

In the past week, police launched a crackdown on suspected gang members, killing more than 30 people in the city's Mathare slum during raids that have drawn criticism from human rights groups.

In the absence of firm answers Monday, people worried and wondered who might be responsible.

"The whole thing is causing tension," said Fred Wabuko, 36, who was reading a newspaper near the site of the explosion. "People automatically suspect the Mungiki, or terrorism."

"We're used to theft around here," he added, "but not bomb blasts."

John Vinocur: Putin's redlining plan for Eastern Europe

PARIS: Location, location, location. On Main Street, you're in business. On Drain Street, around the corner, you're nowhere, and maybe in bankruptcy court.

Project that home truth on the scale of Russia's attempt to reassert itself as a world force, calling the shots again for the countries at its borders from the Baltic to Caucasus:

Vladimir Putin, simon-pure democrat turned real estate broker, suddenly decides that an American missile shield that could block Iranian nukes is not such a lunatic, war-mongering idea after all, and tells George Bush, do I have a location for you! It's Azerbaijan, right on Iran's doorstep, and what a place for a radar installation. Just to accommodate you, we've got one there already.

As for stationing the 10 U.S. interceptors that could actually shoot down an Iranian missile heading west, Putin, talking at the Group of 8 summit meeting in Germany last week, was full of suggestions on more sun/fun locations - Iraq or Turkey, he said, or on American ships at sea.

In real estate terms, it's a new kind of Russian redlining scheme.

In fact, it's a method for moving the shield's radar, to be positioned in the Czech Republic, and its interceptors, scheduled for deployment in Poland, out of the Central and Eastern European neighborhoods that Putin seems intent on reorienting toward revised status as neutered, limited partners of NATO and the European Union.

Responding rather more directly to the Russian proposal than a cautious Bush did, Mirek Toplanek, the Czech prime minister, said he said saw it as effort by Putin to regain a sphere of influence in Central Europe.

An allied diplomat, with long and direct experience in negotiating with the Russians, had an even more explicit formulation: "They've now shown they're exclusively interested in rolling back NATO presence in the old Soviet orbit which, beyond the missile shield, comes down today to a grand total of four policing aircraft in the Baltics and a combined total of couple of thousand men in Romania and Bulgaria. It's an attempt to set a precedent."

The problem is, it's an attempt that might work. In acquiescing to the reality that a missile shield against Iran is not folly, Putin is also telling European public opinion, particularly in Germany, that U.S. radar and interceptor installations in Europe can be easily displaced - forget about the technical, political and security issues involved in Azeri or Turkish sites - to locations that are out of sight, out of the European mind.

The appeal is obvious. To make sure Europe gets the point, Putin said he would drop his threat to retarget Europe with his own missiles but only if the Czech and Polish deployments are abandoned.

And, with a Czech response to draft contracts due in July, he has warned the Americans against moving forward with the installation while his real estate deal is on the table.

Russia refined the ploy further over the weekend, blurring the willfully upbeat notion last week that some kind of underlying Russian-American cooperation could emerge on the shield. Instead, it restated its old line that the shield endangers Russia.

Putin's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, insisted in Moscow that no Iranian nuclear threat had been proved (read: where's the problem, what's the hurry?), and said, concerning Russia's active participation in aspects of the shield, "To suppose that we take part in building such a potential, which creates a threat to us, is wishful thinking."

This seemed directly pointed at hopes that a trace of compromise was in the air. Those hopes had been expressed by the Czech deputy prime minister, Alexandr Vondra in terms that also confront Russia's basic aim of re-establishing its veto rights up to Germany's southeastern border. Vondra talked about Azerbaijan's possible inclusion in the missile shield - but as a complement to the planned European sites.

In fact, according to the allied diplomat, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in April had already proposed to Moscow in a "nonpaper" (a memorandum without official character) that Russia incorporate some of its radar installations into a backup for the shield system.

The idea was rejected.

The diplomat said the Russians then suggested to the Americans that the shield's 10 interceptors be based in Britain instead of Poland. This was described as massively disingenuous because, unlike Poland, interceptors launched from England could actually hit a missile if one from Russia's arsenal were ever fired.

For the diplomat, suggesting England as a site made obvious that the Russians' goal in challenging the missile shield was returning Central and Eastern Europe to glacis or buffer state status, with its implications for the proposed entry of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO and the European Union.

With Bush's reluctance to say what the Russians' real missile shield game is about - out of fear of new controversy, Putin's targeting a strategic rollback by NATO in Europe is not yet a part of the American or NATO's public policy agenda - the United States is left in a cramped, reactive position.

Doubly so.

As the stakes become clearer, and Iran moves toward nuclear capability, any bargaining by the Bush administration on its agreements concerning the shield with the Czechs and Poles for the sake of looking forthcoming with the Russians will open a breach of confidence within NATO.

It will affect the new democracies of Europe which continue to regard America as their ultimate security guarantor (despite the administration's inaction in helping them alleviate or skirt Russia's control of their energy supplies.)

And, it will immeasurably embolden Putin and the men and factions who are supposed to succeed him in Russian leadership next year.

While Bush continued to speak of Putin's Azerbaijan play "as a very positive gesture," Tony Blair, in a surprise burst of frankness summing up meetings with Putin last week, said people in the West were "becoming worried and fearful" about Russian "external policies."

Blair has the luxury of leaving office by the end of the month. Bush, who is around till January 2009, meets Putin again on July 1 and 2 in Maine.

Belgian PM soundly defeated in polls

Belgium's political parties shifted into horse-trading mode yesterday to come up with a new coalition government after voters handed a stinging defeat to Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt.

After eight years in power, the prime minister handed his resignation to King Albert II, but will stay on as caretaker in the weeks -- perhaps months -- needed to form a government that can satisfy Belgium's main linguistic communities.

Flemish Christian Democrat (CDV) leader Yves Leterme was widely seen as most likely to emerge as the next prime minister after his party came out on top in the Flanders region in Sunday's legislative elections.

But he will have to convince the French-speaking community in the southern Wallonia region that he really has their interests at heart, after disparaging them for their general failure to master the Dutch language.

"A nice little demining job," was how La Libre Belgique, a French-language daily, described the task ahead for Leterme, whose campaign theme was "CDV in power = reform of the state," meaning more power to Flanders.

Although Leterme is perfectly bilingual thanks to a francophone father and Flemish mother, he has made little effort to bridge the linguistic divide that cuts through Belgian politics and life.

Leterme has stoked controversy in the past in Wallonia, economically poorer by comparison with the Flemish north, by saying that Belgium was an "accident of history" and that the country has no "intrinsic value."

But with most of the other big parties suffering setbacks in Sunday's poll, little was certain about who would be the Christian Democrats partners in the coalition needed to form a federal government.

Victory in Flanders is essential for success in national politics because 60 percent of Belgians live there and the next premier is all but guaranteed to come from the region.

With 30 seats in the 150-seat lower house of parliament, the electoral success of Leterme's CDV will allow them to regain the dominance of Belgian politics they had held for most of the the post-war period.

Although the Christian Democrats are sure to play a central role in the new government, it was less certain what other parties will be included in the necessary coalition.

As always in Belgian politics, language will play a key role as the parties sit down to form a new coalition government.

A linguistic balance is essential.

The CDV's counterparts in Wallonia were expected to refuse to take part in any alliance which could harm their region's interests.

The Socialists, in both communities, were unlikely to play any role after losing nine seats in Flanders and five in Wallonia.

Far-right party Vlaams Belang, meanwhile, won 17 seats, down one from the last elections in 2003, but it will probably remain shunned by other parties and is almost certain to be left out of the coalition.

The center-left Flemish daily De Morgen said no government was likely to be formed any time soon.

Leterme will have to "bandage wounds and soothe damaged egos. It could take a long time. These promise to be difficult negotiations," the paper said.

China: Flooding death toll at least 71

BEIJING, China (AP) -- The death toll from flooding and landslides in southern China has risen to at least 71, with more rain forecast for the area, state media reported Tuesday.

More than 640,000 people have been forced from their homes, Xinhua News Agency reported, citing an official from the Ministry of Civil Affairs.

The torrential rains that triggered the flooding were expected to continue over the next couple of days, Xinhua said.

It said the heavy rains have lashed the provinces of Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Jiangxi and Fujian over the last week.

Television footage showed destroyed homes and flooded fields, and the ministry said overall economic losses have reached 3.43 billion yuan ($436 million).

The worst-hit province was Guangdong -- the heart of China's export-driven light manufacturing industries.

Xinhua said damages in Guangdong totaled 1.25 billion yuan ($160 million), although there were no immediate reports of any damage to factories or shipping facilities.

China suffers deaths and damage every summer when seasonal rains cause flash floods.

Big cities are sheltered by giant dikes, but fatalities are often reported in farm communities that lack protection from rising rivers, and in mountain towns hit by flash floods.

Millions of people in central and southern China live on reclaimed farmland in the flood plains of rivers.

Flooding and typhoons killed 2,704 people last year, according to the China Meteorological Administration. That was the second-deadliest year on record after 1998, when summer flooding claimed 4,150 lives.

Arms Report Says Global Weapons Sales Continue to Rise

A noted Swedish research institute says global military spending by the world's 100 largest weapons manufacturers rose by 3.5 percent in 2006, to $290 billion.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in its annual report, says U.S. and western European sales spurred the increase. It also notes that the United States remained the world's top military spender last year, allotting $529 billion for weaponry. Authors attributed a $24 billion increase from 2005 to costly U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Researchers note China's continuing surge in military spending, which reached nearly $50 billion in 2006. China overtook Japan last year to become the fourth largest buyer of military goods.

Russia spent nearly $35 billion on arms last year, and the report links Moscow's increasing buying power to its surging energy wealth.

Research project leader Siemon Wezeman said U.S. and European suppliers continue to supply vast quantities of arms to the Middle East, despite the fact that it is a highly volatile region.

Researchers also question how cost-effective military expenditures are as a way of increasing the security of human lives.

Church may sue over cathedral battle game

Sony is being threatened with legal action by senior Church of England clergy for its “highly irresponsible” action in depicting a gory gun battle in the nave of Manchester Cathedral in a computer game.

The Dean of Manchester has condemned the game as “virtual desecration” and is demanding that every copy is withdrawn. In a legal letter sent to Sony yesterday, the Very Rev Rogers Govender demanded a “substantial donation” to the cathedral for its work with young people.

The clergy are particularly distressed that the 18-rated game is set in a church known for its outreach to the victims of gun crime, an escalating problem in Manchester. In the past three days alone, three people have been shot in the city. Every autumn the cathedral puts on a special service for the friends and relatives of gun-crime victims.

The row was disclosed in The Times on Friday after church leaders learnt of the content of the game, which has been on sale in Europe since March and in the rest of the world for six months. More than a million copies of the PlayStation3 game Resistance: Fall of Man have been sold.

Sony said yesterday that it was dealing directly with the cathedral over the issue.

But Razi Mireskandari, a top media lawyer, said that the cathedral and its clergy could have grounds for an action against Sony for defamation and breach of copyright. The cathedral could also sue Sony for “endorsement rights”, he said, which was ironic given that had endorsement been sought in the first place, the clergy would have refused it.

Canon Paul Denby, subDean and administrator, said: “What a display of gratuitous violence, sickening and showing the cathedral as an empty space filled with horror rather than living prayer. It just shows what a vivid imagination and a sick mind can produce.” Sony said in a statement: “We believe we have sought and received all permissions necessary for the creation of the game. Sony Computer Entertainment Europe is aware of the concerns expressed by the cathedral authorities . . . and we naturally take the concerns very seriously.” Sony emphasised that the game was “not based on reality”.

Copyright conundrum

— France has stricter laws governing images of public building. Images of the Eiffel Tower by day can be used but the lighting that was added in 2003 has been copyrighted

— The exteriors of buildings in the UK are not considered to be copyright protected. An agreement with the photographer is usually suffice

— The interiors of buildings in the UK are protected, however EA Games had to receive permission from the FA to use images of the new Wembley

— A case can be made only if a copyright holder is still alive or has died in the past 70 years – a potential problem for the CofE as Manchester Cathedral’s archives date back to 1361