Turkish War Drums

Thousands of Turkish troops poured into Northern Iraq yesterday to hunt down Kurdish terrorists -- then they didn't. Everyone but two anonymous security officials, quoted by the AP, denied the incursion, yet not before oil prices jumped. Someone in Turkey is playing a dangerous game here.

The drumbeat for military action against hideouts used by the Kurdish terrorist group PKK is loud, and for some good reasons. PKK attacks on Turkish troops are more frequent and brazen of late. The terrorist threat to civilians is ever present. Seven soldiers were killed Monday by PKK rebels at a military outpost in southeastern Turkey. No country can long tolerate terrorist safe havens anywhere, not least right across its border.

The question isn't whether to act, but how. Any unilateral Turkish invasion risks plunging the only stable, booming bit of Iraq into violence. Turks are doing great business in Iraqi Kurdistan, particularly in construction. Neither they, nor the U.S. or Iraqi governments, want a confrontation. The Turkish military, supposedly a conservative institution, ought to know the risks involved in pressing ahead.

Note the timing of yesterday's theatrics. The Kurdish problem has festered for years but isn't as bad as when Abdullah Ocalan, since apprehended, led the PKK. The PKK is a big wedge issue, however, in Turkey's current political struggle. The Islamic-rooted, ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is pitted against the secular establishment, led by the military. The army brass is happy to make the AKP look indecisive and weak ahead of parliamentary elections next month. The military's commander promised an incursion at an April press conference, without consulting with the government. The media also feed the populist fires, putting the AKP -- inclined to caution here -- in a tight spot.

Turks have legitimate grievances. The autonomous Iraqi Kurdish government of Massoud Barzani has refused to let his peshmerga fighters move against the PKK. Mr. Barzani's bellicose rumblings about retaliating against Turkey proper, in case of an incursion, also don't help. The U.S. sent former NATO military commander, retired General Joseph Ralston, to mediate -- with little result. The U.S. military feels it already has enough insurgents to fight in Iraq, but Washington can surely do more.

As NATO allies, the U.S. and Turkey are well placed, along with the Iraqis, to come up with a serious antiterrorist strategy. Handing over senior PKK leaders hiding in Iraq to Turkey would calm passions. A pinpoint, short-term Turkish strike might also work, but only in concert with the U.S. and Iraq. In any case, these decisions can wait until Turkey chooses a new government able to think dispassionately. The last thing the world needs now is more turmoil in Iraq.