Peace and War

Monday, June 11, 2007

U.N. Monitor Urges Defusing of Stalemate Over Iran

WASHINGTON, June 11 — The director general of the United Nations nuclear inspection agency warned Tehran and Washington for the first time on Monday that their yearlong stalemate over Iran’s nuclear activities was turning into a “brewing confrontation” that he said “urgently needs to be defused.”

In his statement to the member countries of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the director general, Mohamed ElBaradei, stopped just short of saying that the confrontation could become a military conflict, though his aides said that was clearly the implication. In private meetings with European and American officials, Dr. ElBaradei also warned that unless diplomatic means were found to stop Iran’s installation of new centrifuges, the machines that enrich uranium, the country could have 8,000 of the machines in place by the end of the year.

If all those machines were working — which would be a tremendous challenge for Iran, given the highly sensitive nature of the equipment and the technical obstacles that have plagued Iranian engineers for years — they could produce enough uranium for roughly three nuclear weapons a year, nuclear experts say. But that is a worst-case scenario that assumes Iran could operate the equipment as well as Pakistan did in the late 1980s. One of the founders of Pakistan’s nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, supplied Iran with the prototypes that enabled Iran to build its own equipment.

American experts warn that it is far from clear that Iran could get a large number of centrifuges to spin simultaneously for long periods, which is what it would take to produce bomb-grade uranium. So far, inspectors have said that all the uranium they have tested from the country’s centrifuges has been enriched to reactor grade, which is not sufficient to make a weapon.

Still, Dr. ElBaradei’s comments appeared likely to add to his tensions with the Bush administration, which tried to block his nomination for a second term at the agency just months before he won the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize.

Last month, the United States and several of its European allies issued a formal protest to Dr. ElBaradei after he told The New York Times that the American strategy of negotiating with the Iranians only after they suspended uranium manufacturing had failed, and that the Iranians now “pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich.”

American officials disputed that analysis, perhaps with an eye to buying time in negotiations. On Monday, Dr. ElBaradei modified his statement slightly, saying that “Iran continues steadily to perfect its knowledge relevant to enrichment,” and to expand its manufacturing capability.

David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a private group in Washington that tracks nuclear arms, said he was concerned that Dr. ElBaradei might be overstating Iran’s progress in an effort to propel the United States into unconditional negotiations with Tehran.

“The Iranians would have to demonstrate that they can really make these centrifuges work,” he said. “So far they have been cautious — they have run them very slowly because they don’t want to see hundreds and hundreds of them crash.” He said that he thought the estimate that Iran could have 8,000 centrifuges by the end of the year was “aggressive,” and that “they would have a lot of work to do to get them all up and running.”

A year ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that she would join negotiations with the Europeans and Iran if Tehran first agreed to suspend all enrichment activities for the duration of the negotiations. To the administration’s surprise, the Iranians never agreed to the deal, which the United States says is still on the table.

Dr. ElBaradei’s warning about a “brewing confrontation” appeared to be another dip into political strategy for a man who American officials insist should simply be reporting on Iran’s progress. He has been clear that he views his job more broadly, and that it is his responsibility to caution hard-liners in both the Bush administration and the Iranian government that they have to find a path to compromise. Last month he talked about “new crazies” who were pushing for military action against Iran; he did not name names or countries, but his implication was clear.

On Monday, he focused most of his criticism on the Iranians, who he said continue “to put additional restrictions and limitations on the agency’s verification activities.” A meeting between top I.A.E.A. inspectors and a senior Iranian official, scheduled for Monday in Vienna, was canceled at the last minute when it became clear that the official had come with no new answers to questions that the I.A.E.A. has posed to the country, including about design documents that have led to charges that Iran may be considering ways to build nuclear weapons.

Sarkozy's party likely to dominate parliament

After a poor result in a first round of parliamentary elections, France's Socialists sought to limit the damage yesterday, chasing alliances in the face of a likely crushing victory by President Nicolas Sarkozy's conservatives in the final round.

For the first time in nearly three decades, French voters look set to return to power the current legislative majority, a resounding endorsement of Sarkozy's push to reform Europe's third-largest economy.

In Sunday's first round, his UMP party won 39.6 percent of the vote, while the opposition Socialists had 24.7 percent. The results give the conservatives a strong advantage heading into the decisive runoff next Sunday, putting them on track to expand their absolute majority in the 577-seat parliament.

Socialist Segolene Royal, who lost the presidency to Sarkozy last month, said yesterday she would seek an alliance with centrist Francois Bayrou for the second round in a last-ditch attempt to avoid a "crushing" UMP majority.

Control of the National Assembly is central to Sarkozy's agenda for pulling France out of its doldrums and making it more globally competitive by stripping some labor protections and cutting taxes.

Bayrou, who came in a strong third place in the presidential race, was not able to repeat his success in Sunday's legislative race. Squeezed relentlessly by Sarkozy's camp, his fledgling MoDem party won 7.6 percent. Still, it is well-placed to influence the outcome of the runoff in several key districts.

"It is necessary in a democracy to have ... a counterbalance of powers," Royal told RTL radio yesterday. She warned against the "arrogance" of the ruling party.

The conservatives, too, reached out to Bayrou's party to join forces for the second round. UMP member Patrick Devedjian said the centrists were "welcome in the presidential majority."

Bayrou and his party held meetings yesterday to discuss their strategy. On Sunday night he warned of a "terribly" one-sided parliament. "One day, France will regret this lack of balance. It is not healthy," he said.

Communist leader Marie-George Buffet, whose party's support is shrinking rapidly, urged the left to stay together instead of allying with centrists.

Support for the fringes withered in Sunday's election, sidelining Jean-Marie Le Pen's once-influential extreme right National Front and the Socialists' allies farther to the left.

Turnout sank to a record low of 60.4 percent, which pollsters blamed on lack of suspense: The UMP has been widely expected to win since Sarkozy's strong victory over Royal in the presidential election last month.

Sarkozy's backers say a convincing mandate is the only way to get the French - eager to strike and wary of globalization - to reform. Prime Minister Francois Fillon laid out his agenda Sunday night for the coming months: reform of universities, making transport strikes less crippling, new anti-crime measures, freeing up the labor market and a plan to cut the large national debt.

Palestinian students take exams amid fighting

Despite a cease-fire Monday between Fatah and Hamas intended to allow Palestinian students to take their nationally administered final exams, sporadic violence has continued.

The Palestinian online news agency Ma'an reports that Hamas and Fatah militants tried to create at least the outward appearance of compliance with the agreement.

In the morning hours, clashes stopped and the streets of Gaza City witnessed a tentative tranquillity. Despite this, gunmen continued to be deployed in the streets, although fewer than before, and roadblocks were partially removed, in order to enable the students to arrive at their schools for the first Tawjihi exam.

Still, like most cease-fires between the factions, this one has proved precarious. Shortly after it started, sporadic gunfire could be heard throughout Gaza, Reuters reports. In one incident, militants fired a rocket-propelled grenade at a police station and a fierce gun battle erupted. An official identified as being involved with the truce negotiations told Reuters that "the cease-fire is limping on crutches and is in danger of collapsing if violations on both sides do not stop."

The tests began on schedule in Gaza, but most pupils took circuitous routes to their schools in a bid to avoid the gunmen as the sounds of shooting punctuated the air, witnesses said.

Musbah Abu al-Kheir passed several armed checkpoints on his way to school from a refugee camp outside Gaza City.

"Fatah and Hamas have no appreciation for the fact we are having final exams today," he said.

"How are we supposed to take exams to the sounds of gunfire and ambulance sirens?"

According to the Associated Press, some 24,000 12th-grade students in Gaza must take the exam, called the Tawjihi, to graduate. For many students, the exam can provide a means of escaping the violence, as many who score well hope to leverage the results to enter foreign universities. The AP writes that students struggle to prepare for the exam as the security situation deteriorates.

Daliya Naji, a 16-year-old high school senior, said the fighting in Gaza had kept her awake all night.

"I am a good student, but I feel my brain is empty," she said. "I can't think any more and I don't know what to do."

She said she hoped she would pass her exams in order to be accepted to a university in Egypt. "At least it will be my ticket out of Gaza," she said.

Hours before the cease-fire began, militants attacked Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniya's house at a refugee camp outside Gaza City, reports the BBC. No one was injured, but the incident marks the first time the Prime Minister, a Hamas member, has been directly targeted.

Al Jazeera reports that violence erupted Sunday when - according to officials - Hamas members threw a Fatah member, who was also a presidential bodyguard, off the roof of an high building. Fatah retaliated by killing a prominent Hamas cleric. The conflict over the weekend throughout Gaza left five dead and 53 wounded reports Al Jazeera, which classified the violence as the worst since mid-May.

Witnesses said masked fighters from both Islamist Hamas and secular Fatah streamed onto the streets, setting up roadblocks and barriers to stop cars and check identification papers and pulling rival supporters from vehicles and houses.

Main roads were paralysed by the fighting, and shops and businesses closed early.

The internal violence also coincides with ongoing fighting between Israeli and Palestinian forces. The New York Times reports that militants from the Islamic Jihad and the Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades — a militia loosely associated with Fatah — attacked Israeli soldiers at the Kissufim border crossing. The ensuing battle lasted several hours, leaving at least one Palestinian militant dead.

The Israelis responded by conducting air strikes against at least three buildings allegedly connected to the Islamic Jihad. However, reports vary greatly as to what purpose the buildings served.

An Israeli Army spokeswoman said the air force attacked one building used by the militant group Islamic Jihad and another building, which she described as a weapons-producing plant belonging to Fatah. Both groups had ties to the raid on Saturday, in which fighters for Islamic Jihad and Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades, an offshoot of the mainstream Fatah organization, crossed the border into Israel and fought with soldiers for hours, apparently in an attempt to capture one.

Palestinian medics said the Israeli strike on Sunday hit three locations and described them as a study center and a charitable association, both run by Islamic Jihad, and a privately owned metal workshop. Seven civilians were wounded, according to Dr. Muawiya Hassanein, director of emergency services in the Palestinian Health Ministry.

In the meantime, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has called for an end to internal violence in Gaza, saying it was "was as damaging, if not more so, than the 40-year Israeli occupation," reports Agence France-Presse.

"What's happening in Gaza is regrettable and very harming. Both parties are working seriously with the Egyptian brothers to put an end to it," Abbas told reporters in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

Lebanese troops demolish apartment of Fatah al-Islam's leader

Lebanese troops demolished the apartment of Fatah al-Islam's leader Shaker Abssi in a Palestinian refugee camp in northern Lebanon after his militants killed two Lebanese Red Cross (LRC) rescuers Monday.

Local Naharnet news website quoted reliable sources as saying that Lebanese troops stormed Abssi's apartment in the Noras compound, in the center of Nahr al-Bared camp, confiscated a large quantity of documents from it and demolished the whole building.

This, the sources explained, leaves Abssi's militants besieged in three remaining buildings of the Noras compound.

Earlier on Monday, two LRC rescuers were killed when their vehicle was hit by a shell from Fatah al-Islam militants.

The state-run National News Agency identified the two fatalities as Boulos Miimari and Haitham Suleiman.

Meanwhile, army gunners manning 155-mm howitzers and mortar batteries pounded hideouts held by the militants in the camp, 12 km north of the port city of Tripoli, provincial capital of North Lebanon.

Lebanese army shelling also covered the southern entrance to the camp, which indicates that Fatah al-Islam militants were trying to infiltrate out of the besieged shantytown to seek refuge in mountains overlooking Tripoli, the report added.

The Lebanese government says Fatah al-Islam is a terrorist network affiliated with Syrian intelligence and launches attacks aimed at destabilizing Lebanon. Syria denies the charge.

The Lebanese army have been fighting with the militants since May 20. The Lebanese authorities have demanded that Fatah al-Islam militants in the camp surrender. But the militant group has vowed to fight to the very end and threatened to widen their targets of attack to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon.

Iraqi Parliament Votes to Oust Speaker Who Intimidated Members

BAGHDAD, June 11 — Parliament approved a resolution on Monday that would force the resignation of the speaker, Mahmoud Mashhadani. The vote underscored the widespread discontent with Mr. Mashhadani, a Sunni Arab politician who has done little to build consensus among Iraq’s political blocs.

Of the 168 Parliament members present at the session, 113 voted in favor of the resolution, which included a pledge from the Sunni Arab coalition — which had backed Mr. Mashhadani in previous scrapes — that the speaker would submit his resignation once a replacement was found. In the meantime, Mr. Mashhadani will be on leave, though he will remain a member of Parliament.

Those who voted to remove him included a broad spectrum of Sunni Arabs, Shiites and Kurds. He was not in the chamber during the vote.

“What happened today made obvious the dynamic of democracy in Iraq,” said Hassan Sinead, a member of Parliament from the Shiite Dawa Party.

“The Parliament today had a peaceful, impartial, a democratic operation” to remove the speaker, he said.

The military reported that three American soldiers died Sunday when insurgents detonated a bomb under a highway overpass near Mahmudiya, the volatile area just south of Baghdad also known as the triangle of death.

Although the situation was relatively quiet in Baghdad on Monday, in nearby Diyala Province insurgents destroyed a bridge that linked the provincial capital, Baquba, to the main highway to Baghdad, according to a member of the security forces in Diyala, who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to journalists.

The bridge linked towns on the eastern side of the bridge, which are Shiite, with those on the western side of to the bridge, which are Sunni Arab. The explosion occurred on the western side of the bridge.

This was at least the fourth successful attack on a bridge in the last two months. Bridges are crucial in central Iraq, where the broad Tigris and Euphrates rivers and their tributaries wind through the countryside. Each attack has hampered commerce and made daily life more difficult for Iraqis.

The first was on April 12, when insurgents blew up one of Baghdad’s bridges over the Tigris on the same day a suicide bomber detonated inside Parliament. Another bridge in Diyala and a bridge to in Mahmudiya have also been attacked.

Iraqi security forces have managed to foil several other attempts, said Lt. Col. Christopher Garver, a spokesman for the American military forces in Baghdad.

“Militarily, for the coalition, knocking down the bridge may or may not have significance, because we have other resources, we have 20,000 troops on each side of the river,” Colonel Garver said. “But it’s inconvenient for the people who live there, and it’s a visible reminder that the insurgents were successful on that day.”

In Baghdad, Iraqi police officers retrieved 17 bodies, most of them shot in the head, according to the Interior Ministry. Ten of those were found in southwest Baghdad, where there has been a sharp increase in the activities of the Mahdi Army, the militia linked to the anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.

At least eight Iraqis were killed in violence in Mosul, including the chief of the Iraq Central Bank in Nineveh Province. Eight bodies were found in Diyala as well, and insurgents there tried to kill the vice governor. In Najaf, security forces intercepted a large truck containing a BMW rigged as a car bomb and a container loaded with explosives. It had crossed the border from Syria and was being driven by a man carrying Syrian documents, said Ahmad Duaibel, chief spokesman for the Najaf governor’s office.

In Samarra, a roadside bomb near a police station killed two policemen and wounded three, the police said, according to Reuters.

The agreement on Mr. Mashhadani’s resignation from Parliament came after repeated episodes in which he or one of his bodyguards physically intimidated members of Parliament, in at least two cases striking them. “The confrontations and conflicts and tension between Mashhadani and the other members in the Parliament happened over and over,” Mr. Sinead, the Dawa Party representative, said. He added that the most recent incident, in which one of Mr. Mashhadani’s guards struck a member of Parliament, was “the straw that broke the camel’s back.”

The move opens the way for the Sunni Arab political bloc, known as Tawafiq, to nominate a new person for the post. Since the entire Parliament must vote on the speaker, there is a tacit understanding that while the Tawafiq coalition would nominate a Sunni Arab, it would first obtain approval from the Shiite and Kurdish blocs.

Under the political bargain struck among Iraq’s religious and ethnic groups, the Sunni Arabs hold three leadership positions: one vice presidential slot, one deputy prime minister slot and the speakership.

The speaker can wield considerable power, delaying or speeding legislation and pressing the Parliament to act. The Parliament is under heavy pressure from the American government to move swiftly on an overhaul of the Constitution and on crucial legislation like that determining the distribution of the country’s oil revenues.

Two of the people said to be under consideration for the job are Usama al-Tikriti and Ayaed al-Sammaraie, both members of the Iraqi Islamic Party, who are respected and viewed as moderates.

Until a replacement for Mr. Mashhadani is approved, the deputy speaker, Sheik Khalid al-Attiya, a Shiite from the United Iraqi Alliance, will be the acting speaker.

Abdul Razzaq al-Saiedi and Khalid al-Ansary contributed reporting from Baghdad, and employees of The New York Times from Mosul, Diyala, Hilla and Salahuddin.

Bush Ends European Tour With Promise to Help Bulgaria

SOFIA, Bulgaria, June 11 -- President Bush pledged to help U.S. ally Bulgaria win the release of five Bulgarian nurses held in Libya since 1999 on charges of infecting Libyan children with the virus that causes AIDS.

"We will continue to make clear to Libya that the release of these nurses is a high priority for our country," Bush said at a news conference with Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov. Bush noted that the United States is contributing to a fund to help the children.

The nurses and a Palestinian doctor were sentenced last year to death in the case, which has drawn international condemnation.

In consultations at the final stop of an eight-day European tour, Bush also discussed Iraq, Afghanistan and the continuing stalemate over the fate of Kosovo, the Serbian province that has been run by the United Nations since 1999.

At the news conference, Bush repeated that he favors independence for Kosovo. Russia has threatened to veto an independence plan for Kosovo at the United Nations, saying it would set a bad precedent. Serbia opposes the plan to cut away its southernmost province.

"As we seek independence for Kosovo, we've also got to make it clear to Serbia that there's a way forward," Bush said, "maybe in NATO, maybe in the E.U. and definitely in better relations with the United States."

Bush thanked Bulgaria for its help in the U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He said that an anti-missile shield that the United States has proposed for construction in Poland and the Czech Republic would be aimed at long-range missiles that would potentially fly over Bulgaria. Bulgaria itself would be protected by other systems directed against intermediate-range missiles, he said.

Parvanov replied that "we Bulgarians would accept any solution that would provide more guarantees -- more security guarantees, more guarantees of the indivisibility of the security of the Euro-Atlantic space." His country is a new member of the NATO alliance and the European Union and last year signed an agreement for U.S. troops to be based on its soil.

Later, the two leaders had lunch. In the afternoon, Bush attended a meeting with students at the American University in Bulgaria before departing for the United States.

Monsoon Kills at Least 78 in Bangladesh

CHITTAGONG, Bangladesh (AP) - Mudslides caused by monsoon rains buried bamboo and straw shacks in shantytowns and collapsed brick houses in southeastern Bangladesh Monday, killing at least 67 people. Another 11 died when they were struck by lightning, rescue officials and witnesses said.

The hilly port city of Chittagong was hardest-hit by the heavy rains, officials said. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in just three hours early Monday, submerging the downtown in about 4 feet of water, the local weather service and witnesses said. At least 67 died in the city.

The lightning strikes killed 11 people in the neighboring districts of Cox's Bazar, Noakhali and Brahmmanbaria, the food and disaster management ministry said.

The worst-hit area was a congested shantytown in Chittagong, where large chunks of hill collapsed and buried dozens of bamboo and straw shacks. The area is near a military zone and army rescuers pulled out at least 35 bodies from the debris, city official Shahidul Islam said.

``I have never seen so much water in my life,'' said Mofizur Rahman, 75, who lives near the city's main hospital.

Another 15 bodies were pulled from the remnants of a hilly slum on land belonging to Bangladesh Railways in another part of the city, said Nasir Ahmed, a fire brigade officer. Six others died in another hillside slum near a power station, he said, and five members of a family perished when the walls of their brick home collapsed in heavy rain on the Chittagong University campus.

Four others, including a young mother and her toddler, were killed when their house collapsed. A policeman was electrocuted when he stepped on a severed electrical wire.

Emergency workers rescued more than 50 injured people across Chittagong.

Government and charity agencies distributed food and water to about 1,000 people left homeless by the calamity, the area's government administrator Mukhlesur Rahman said.

Flash floods and inundated roads hampered the rescue efforts and traffic in the city of 4 million, about 130 miles southeast of the capital, Dhaka. Many schools and businesses were forced to close for the day.

Several factories in an industrial belt around the city were also flooded, stopping production and causing extensive damage to machinery, said M.A. Mohiuddin, whose textile mill makes goods for export.

The city's telephone, television and radio networks were also interrupted as transmission stations were flooded.

In neighboring Feni district, rain-swollen rivers flooded 15 farming villages, leaving at least 55,000 people stranded, CSB television reported. No casualties were reported in Feni, 80 miles east of Dhaka, the report said.

Heavy monsoon rains - the highest levels recorded in seven years - also inundated parts of the capital Dhaka and other regions of the country over the weekend.

Bangladesh, a low-lying, deeply impoverished nation of 144 million people, is prone to seasonal floods and cyclones which kill hundreds every year.

A powerful cyclone in 1991 killed 139,000 people along the coast.